The response of tropospheric circulation to perturbations in lower-stratospheric temperature

A multiple regression analysis of the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis dataset shows a response to increased solar activity of a weakening and poleward shift of the subtropical jets. This signal is separable from other influences, such as those of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and is very similar to that seen in previous studies using global circulation models (GCMs) of the effects of an increase in solar spectral irradiance. The response to increased stratospheric (volcanic) aerosol is found in the data to be a weakening and equatorward shift of the jets. The GCM studies of the solar influence also showed an impact on tropospheric mean meridional circulation with a weakening and expansion of the tropical Hadley cells and a poleward shift of the Ferrel cells. To understand the mechanisms whereby the changes in solar irradiance affect tropospheric winds and circulation, experiments have been carried out with a simplified global circulation model. The results show that generic heating of the lower stratosphere tends to weaken the subtropical jets and the tropospheric mean meridional circulations. The positions of the jets, and the extent of the Hadley cells, respond to the distribution of the stratospheric heating, with low-latitude heating forcing them to move poleward, and high-latitude or latitudinally uniform heating forcing them equatorward. The patterns of response are similar to those that are found to be a result of the solar or volcanic influences, respectively, in the data analysis. This demonstrates that perturbations to the heat balance of the lower stratosphere, such as those brought about by solar or volcanic activity, can produce changes in the mean tropospheric circulation, even without any direct forcing below the tropopause

The Storm-Track Response to Idealized SST Perturbations in an Aquaplanet GCM

The tropospheric response to midlatitude SST anomalies has been investigated through a series of aquaplanet simulations using a high-resolution version of the Hadley Centre atmosphere model (HadAM3) under perpetual equinox conditions. Model integrations show that increases in the midlatitude SST gradient generally lead to stronger storm tracks that are shifted slightly poleward, consistent with changes in the lower-tropospheric baroclinicity. The large-scale atmospheric response is, however, highly sensitive to the position of the SST gradient anomaly relative to that of the subtropical jet in the unperturbed atmosphere. In particular, when SST gradients are increased very close to the subtropical jet, then the Hadley cell and subtropical jet is strengthened while the storm track and eddy-driven jet are shifted equatorward. Conversely, if the subtropical SST gradients are reduced and the midlatitude gradients increased, then the storm track shows a strong poleward shift and a well-separated eddy-driven jet is produced. The sign of the SST anomaly is shown to play a secondary role in determining the overall tropospheric response. These findings are used to provide a new and consistent interpretation of some previous GCM studies concerning the atmospheric response to midlatitude SST anomalies

Annular variability and eddy-zonal flow interactions in a simplified atmospheric GCM. Part 1: Characterization of high and low frequency behaviour

Experiments have been performed using a simplified, Newtonian forced, global circulation model to investigate how variability of the tropospheric jet can be characterized by examining the combined fluctuations of the two leading modes of annular variability. Eddy forcing of this variability is analyzed in the phase space of the leading modes using the vertically integrated momentum budget. The nature of the annular variability and eddy forcing depends on the time scale. At low frequencies the zonal flow and baroclinic eddies are in quasi equilibrium and anomalies propagate poleward. The eddies are shown primarily to reinforce the anomalous state and are closely balanced by the linear damping, leaving slow evolution as a residual. At high frequencies the flow is strongly evolving and anomalies are initiated on the poleward side of the tropospheric jet and propagate equatorward. The eddies are shown to drive this evolution strongly: eddy location and amplitude reflect the past baroclinicity, while eddy feedback on the zonal flow may be interpreted in terms of wave breaking associated with baroclinic life cycles in lateral shear

Kithengee of the treehouse

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A new Rossby Wave-breaking interpretation of the North Atlantic Oscillation

This paper proposes the hypothesis that the low-frequency variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) arises as a result of variations in the occurrence of upper-level Rossby wave–breaking events over the North Atlantic. These events lead to synoptic situations similar to midlatitude blocking that are referred to as high-latitude blocking episodes. A positive NAO is envisaged as being a description of periods in which these episodes are infrequent and can be considered as a basic, unblocked situation. A negative NAO is a description of periods in which episodes occur frequently. A similar, but weaker, relationship exists between wave breaking over the Pacific and the west Pacific pattern. Evidence is given to support this hypothesis by using a two-dimensional potential-vorticity-based index to identify wave breaking at various latitudes. This is applied to Northern Hemisphere winter data from the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40), and the events identified are then related to the NAO. Certain dynamical precursors are identified that appear to increase the likelihood of wave breaking. These suggest mechanisms by which variability in the tropical Pacific, and in the stratosphere, could affect the NAO

A Prospective Design Identifying Etiological Risk Factors Associated with MTSS and Stress Fractures in Female Intercollegiate Athletes.

The identification of risk factors associated with overuse injuries, specifically Medial Tibial Stress Syndrome (MTSS) and Tibial Stress Fractures (TSF), may help professionals with management and prevention of these injuries. The purpose of this study was to identify risk factors associated with MTSS and TSF in female intercollegiate athletes. This study used a mulitifactorial, prospective design for 13-26 weeks. Thirty-nine Division I intercollegiate female student-athletes in volleyball, soccer, and track were examined. Anatomical, physiological (eating disorder and menstrual history), and training (duration and recovery time) characteristics were examined as possible risk factors. Only two injuries were reported during the study; therefore, analysis for risk factors was not possible. Descriptive statistics for the dependent variables were calculated, and comparisons across sport were performed. Differences in leg length values and dorsiflexion ROM were observed across sports. No conclusions could be drawn regarding possible risk factors for MTSS and TSF in this population

The interaction of helical tip and root vortices in a wind turbine wake

Analysis of the helical vortices measured behind a model wind turbine in a water channel are reported. Phase-locked measurements using planar particle image ve- locimetry are taken behind a Glauert rotor to investigate the evolution and breakdown of the helical vortex structures. Existing linear stability theory predicts helical vortex filaments to be susceptible to three unstable modes. The current work presents tip and root vortex evolution in the wake for varying tip speed ratio and shows a breaking of the helical symmetry and merging of the vortices due to mutual inductance between the vortical filaments. The merging of the vortices is shown to be steady with rotor phase, however, small-scale non-periodic meander of the vortex positions is also ob- served. The generation of the helical wake is demonstrated to be closely coupled with the blade aerodynamics, strongly influencing the vortex properties which are shown to agree with theoretical predictions of the circulation shed into the wake by the blades. The mutual inductance of the helices is shown to occur at the same non-dimensional wake distance

Who let the trolls out? Towards understanding state-sponsored trolls

Recent evidence has emerged linking coordinated campaigns by state-sponsored actors to manipulate public opinion on the Web. Campaigns revolving around major political events are enacted via mission-focused ?trolls." While trolls are involved in spreading disinformation on social media, there is little understanding of how they operate, what type of content they disseminate, how their strategies evolve over time, and how they influence the Web's in- formation ecosystem. In this paper, we begin to address this gap by analyzing 10M posts by 5.5K Twitter and Reddit users identified as Russian and Iranian state-sponsored trolls. We compare the behavior of each group of state-sponsored trolls with a focus on how their strategies change over time, the different campaigns they embark on, and differences between the trolls operated by Russia and Iran. Among other things, we find: 1) that Russian trolls were pro-Trump while Iranian trolls were anti-Trump; 2) evidence that campaigns undertaken by such actors are influenced by real-world events; and 3) that the behavior of such actors is not consistent over time, hence detection is not straightforward. Using Hawkes Processes, we quantify the influence these accounts have on pushing URLs on four platforms: Twitter, Reddit, 4chan's Politically Incorrect board (/pol/), and Gab. In general, Russian trolls were more influential and efficient in pushing URLs to all the other platforms with the exception of /pol/ where Iranians were more influential. Finally, we release our source code to ensure the reproducibility of our results and to encourage other researchers to work on understanding other emerging kinds of state-sponsored troll accounts on Twitter.https://arxiv.org/pdf/1811.03130.pdfAccepted manuscrip

Techniques for targeted Fermi-GBM follow-up of gravitational-wave events

The Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo ground-based gravitational-wave detectors are projected to come online 2015-2016, reaching a final sensitivity sufficient to observe dozens of binary neutron star mergers per year by 2018. We present a fully-automated, targeted search strategy for prompt gamma-ray counterparts in offline Fermi-GBM data. The multi-detector method makes use of a detailed model response of the instrument, and benefits from time and sky location information derived from the gravitational-wave signal.Comment: 2012 Fermi Symposium proceedings - eConf C12102